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JP Morgan, ING on Today’s Final CPI Reading

POLAND
  • JP Morgan say the main curiosity they had for today’s CPI release was the impact of the government’s measure to provide free medicine to over 65s and under 18s. With the data in hand, they see that pharmaceutical product prices fell 5.3% m/m, which is an extraordinary move given medicine weighs only 3.4% in the CPI basket and 6% within core inflation but was large enough to subtract 0.33ppts from the monthly core reading.
  • ING say the marked deceleration in core inflation was a combination of both market forces and administrative decisions. Their preliminary estimates suggest that the headline inflation will fall slightly below 7% y/y in October.
  • In addition, they expect that in November the MPC may cut rates by another 25bp to 5.5% and that by mid-2024 rates may be cut to 4.75%. From then on, they'll likely remain unchanged.
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