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JP Morgan Say Core Inflation Reinforces View That CBRT Will Stay Higher-for-Longer

TURKEY
  • JP Morgan say core inflation momentum reinforces their view that the CBRT is likely to keep monetary policy tight for longer. They maintain their year-end policy rate forecast of 45%, with the risks for higher.
  • However, JPM add that they do not rule out further tightening in coming months by the CBRT depending on inflation prints in February and March. That said, according to the CBRT’s press release, the newly appointed Governor has signalled that the CBRT is not planning to hike the policy rate at this stage.
  • JP Morgan believe that the CBRT will keep the door open for further rate hikes in its forward guidance in the Inflation Report Press Briefing. They say they feel more confident now that the CBRT is likely to keep its policy rate at 45% (or higher) this year without any premature rate cuts as the existing MPC is more sensitive to the inflation outlook.
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