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JP Morgan See 250bp Hikes at Each Meeting to Year End

TURKEY
  • JP Morgan see the outsized hike of 750bp as a one-off to anchor rapidly deteriorating inflation expectations. They now expect a 250bp hike at each meeting by the end of the year and revise up their year-end policy rate forecast to 35% (previously 30%).
  • JPM say they find the MPC statement hawkish as the CBRT acknowledges the deterioration in pricing behaviour and pledges the continuation of quantitative and selective credit tightening.
  • After monthly inflation of 9.5% in July, strong inflationary pressures have continued in August due to the significant deterioration in pricing behaviour, JPM say. They expect monthly inflation of 8.5% in August, which will lead headline inflation to rise from 47.8% to 58.1% in August. JPM revise up their year-end inflation forecast to 62% (previously 57%) due to deterioration in pricing behaviour.
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