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JP Morgan See 500bps of Rate Cuts This Year (Prev: 600bps)

RUSSIA
  • JP Morgan say the CBR signalled that policy will have to stay tight for longer to secure cooling of the (overheated) economy and a durable slowdown in inflation.
  • Post-meeting commentaries suggested that policy might start easing in 2H24, while the forecast of average policy rate was lifted by 1.0ppt to 13.5-15.5% in 2024 and 8-10% in 2025.
  • Therefore, JPM have amended their forecast and push back the expected timing of the first cut to July from June, with the total amount of cuts by year-end lowered to 500bp from 600bp previously.

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