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JPM: BoC Call Change: Consecutive 50bp Hikes

CANADA
  • JPM now expect the BoC to hike 50bps at back to back meetings in April and June instead of their prior forecast of 5x25bps this year.
  • They see a return to 25bp hikes for Jul, Sep and Oct to end the year at 2.25%, the midpoint of the estimated neutral range of 1.75-2.75%, before hitting 2.75% by mid-2023.
  • They maintain the Bank will announce the start of balance sheet run-off at the April meeting.
  • “A number of senior BoC officials have signaled increasingly hawkish sentiment suggesting there is a consensus in favor of front-loading policy tightening. Indeed, Deputy Governor Kozicki noted recently that the Bank is “prepared to act forcefully.””

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