JPM economist Daniel Silver said......>

US DATA REACT: JPM economist Daniel Silver said JPM ups its 2Q tracking GDP

estimate, after "solid" July retail sales data as "overall sales increased 0.6%

during the month, while sales increased 0.5% away from autos and there was a

0.6% gain in the important control group (the total excluding gasoline, autos,

building materials, and food services). These July increases were close to our

expectations, but a few tenths better than consensus forecasts. And the report

also contained modest upward revisions to control sales for earlier months,

making the recent trend stronger than we had anticipated. Our mapping of the

retail sales data and other related inputs suggests that real consumption

increased 0.3% in July. And we now think real consumption will be up around 2.3%

saar in 3Q (previously: 2.1%)."

- He adds "this news adds upside risk to our 1.75% real GDP forecast for 3Q.

With the revisions in the hand, we also raised our tracking estimate of 2Q real

GDP growth from 2.6% to 2.7% saar."