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JPM See Above-Consensus 7.7% CPI Read

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Ahead of the September CPI release in 20 minutes (Exp. Unchanged at 7.6%), JPM write that they see an above-consensus 7.7% read, with core inflation rising more substantially to 4.8%.
  • They write that the near-term inflation outlook has marginally worsened with prospects of a significant diesel price rise in November and continued pressure on the currency. Food inflation probably will rise further to 12.8%, from 11.5% in August, though with the seasonally adjusted momentum slowing somewhat.
  • They now look for headline inflation ending the year at 7.3%, from 7.2% previously, with inflation averaging 6.9% this year (previously 6.8%) and 5.5% (unchanged) next year.

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