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JPM See Further Inflation Gains Ahead, But Should Decelerate From Q2 Next Year

ARGENTINA
  • JPM write that the details on fiscal adjustment are not as aggressive as they had entertained. In light of the measures, the expectation is for inflation to accelerate ahead, accumulating a bit more than 60% in December and January. Yet, if correctly executed, inflation should start to decelerate in 2Q24. Their current base case assumes monthly inflation averaging 13.3% in 2Q24, 4.5% in 3Q24 and 2.3% in 4Q24.
  • On the FX regime, they adjustment to 800 is above levels of 600-650 that were discussed in regional press, but is aligned to their base case.
  • They see an evolution of the policy template as being required by 2Q24 once international reserves start are replenished by soybean exports, and that a new FX correction may be required to finally migrate into a unified exchange rate system.
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