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JPMorgan Currently Forecast Rates at 9.75% in 2024 and 7.5% in 2025

MEXICO
  • Banxico is widely expected to end the 12-month on-hold stance by cutting the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 11%. The board has been gradually tweaking its narrative to prepare the market for cuts. The levels of both the inflation gap and the real ex-ante policy rate in JPMorgan’s view, validate the start of an easing cycle as soon as this week.
  • While annual inflation remains above the tolerance reference of 4%, reaching 4.4% last month, the disinflation gains and the hawkish narrative that have prevailed throughout the on-hold stance have also paved the way for a gradual correction in inflation expectations that together with a cautious and vigilant message from the board should help to consolidate the convergence of inflation to its target, even if this is expected to be quite gradual this year.
  • JPM do not expect a unanimous vote in favour of a 25bp cut, with the most hawkish member (Espinosa) voting to keep rates on hold. The rhetoric of the statement and incoming inflation data for March and April will determine if JPM need to reassess the path for both 2024 and 2025; they currently see rates at 9.75% in 2024 and 7.5% in 2025.
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