MNI BRIEF: China Visitor Mobile Payments Surge in H1

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 26

MNI BRIEF: Foreign Firms Content In China

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Steady- TEBA

MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY299.05 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 589; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 101

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JUL INDEX 66.4

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPMorgan On El Salvador - No IMF Deal, But 2023 Bond Payment Likely

LATAM
  • Over the past year, El Salvador’s Eurobonds have entered distressed territory as IMF negotiations stalled and as Bitcoin adoption became a key sticking point. Repayment capacity has been in focus as the country reels from the pandemic scar, with economic outperformance having come with fiscal deterioration.
  • President Bukele has remained steadfast with his cryptocurrency aspirations and vision for the country, which leads JPM to now expect no deal with IMF to be reached this year.
  • That said, JPM view remains that El Salvador will be able to meet its short-term financing needs, including the upcoming January 2023 US$800mn Eurobond payment. While this should provide some relief, their analysis shows that debt is on an unsustainable path, in line with the latest assessment from the IMF’s Article IV, with gross financing needs expected to exceed 15% of GDP from 2022 onwards.
  • Against this backdrop, restructuring risks look to be substantially higher from mid-2024—once presidential elections are past—with the outcome of such restructuring depending on whether El Salvador chooses to re-engage with the IMF at a later time, and if so, if the IMF is keen to engage them back.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.