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JPMorgan Raises 2023 GDP Forecast To 0.5%

BRAZIL
  • With more expansionist fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies, JPMorgan have raised their 2023 GDP forecast from 0.2% to 0.5% with this year’s CPI estimate moving from 5.2% to 5.6%Dec/Dec on the back of stronger growth and tax hikes. 2024 growth was downgraded from 1.4% to 1% as the fiscal policy will require BCB to stay on hold for longer, hurting medium-term growth prospects.
    • The uncertainty around these forecasts remains elevated as there are plenty of domestic and global risks to consider, all aggravated by the political polarization and divided public opinion in the country.
  • The intention to reduce the fiscal deficit goes in the direction of straightening out fiscal accounts, but JPM don’t think all of this can be delivered this year as they are unsure about the potential impact of the temporary measures, such as reduction of litigation.
    • They continue working with a 1.7% primary (ex. interest expenses) deficit this year, but admit that the asymmetry of risks is toward smaller deficit increases in the face of the announcements. JPM’s forecast is below the budgeted deficit of 2.3% but still above Minister Haddad’s estimates of deficit—ranging between 0.5% and 1.0% of GDP.
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