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/JPY: Close at Current or Higher Levels Would Mark Break of Resistance

CHF
  • A close at current or higher levels for CHF/JPY would put the cross through resistance at 169.82, the 61.8% retracement for the Jan – Mar downleg. This extends the sequence of higher highs to four consecutive sessions and marks the clearance of the 50-dma at 169.12.
  • Weakness in late March stemmed from markets placing CHF in a particularly vulnerable position to further yen strength given contrasting SNB / BoJ policy, with the most obvious target for a continuation lower the 162.20 double bottom in December. However, this week’s constructive price action instead turns focus to recent highs at 170.81 should this momentum persist.
  • Japanese intervention risks naturally remain a concern for fresh longs, however the still historically low levels of realised vol in JPY could calm these concerns (one-week realised vols remain ~3 points below the rolling 12m average).
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  • A close at current or higher levels for CHF/JPY would put the cross through resistance at 169.82, the 61.8% retracement for the Jan – Mar downleg. This extends the sequence of higher highs to four consecutive sessions and marks the clearance of the 50-dma at 169.12.
  • Weakness in late March stemmed from markets placing CHF in a particularly vulnerable position to further yen strength given contrasting SNB / BoJ policy, with the most obvious target for a continuation lower the 162.20 double bottom in December. However, this week’s constructive price action instead turns focus to recent highs at 170.81 should this momentum persist.
  • Japanese intervention risks naturally remain a concern for fresh longs, however the still historically low levels of realised vol in JPY could calm these concerns (one-week realised vols remain ~3 points below the rolling 12m average).