July retail sales +0.5% vs +0.1% expected,..>

US DATA: July retail sales +0.5% vs +0.1% expected, but right on whisper 

number. Ex-mtr veh +0.6% vs +0.4% exp. However, June sales were 

revised lower. Widespread gains, including autos and gas, lifted sales.

- Vehicle sales +0.2%, above some analysts expectation for a decline

reading. There were gains in most of the other components.

- Analysts have overestimated retail sales in seven of the last 10 

years, so today's data sharply deviates from that trend.

- Gas station sales +0.8%, accounting for some of the headline surprise, 

but July sales ex. mtr veh and gas still +0.6% and +0.5% ex auto, bldg 

mat, gas and food services, suggesting underlying strength.

- Building materials sales flat, but food services +1.3%, clothing 

sales +1.3%, and department stores +1.2%.  

- July sales were 4.3% above the 2Q average at an annual rate, suggesting 

that the recent strength continued. Ex. mtr veh, retail sales were +4.9% 

from the 2Q average, and were +2.6% ex. autos, bldg materials, gas, and 

food services.