January 29, 2025 07:45 GMT
STIR: Just Over 70bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25, Reeves Due
STIR
A bid in core global FI markets filters into GBP STIRs.
- No clear driver. Increased French political risk apparent, but OATs have been unreactive to the news.
- European earnings set the tone in early equity futures trade, as detailed earlier.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~71bp of cuts through ’25.
- SONIA futures flat to +3.0.
- Comments from UK Chancellor Reeves due from just after 10:00. We provided greater colour in an earlier bullet. It is unlikely to be a market moving speech based on the already-released excerpts.
- As a result, macro and cross-market cues will be eyed today, with the UK data calendar subdued through the end of the week.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-25
4.474
-22.7
Mar-25
4.424
-27.7
May-25
4.275
-42.5
Jun-25
4.214
-48.6
Aug-25
4.105
-59.5
Sep-25
4.077
-62.3
Nov-25
4.014
-68.6
Dec-25
3.994
-70.6
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