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Just Shy Of 7 Fed Hikes In 2022

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by Fed Funds futures have been trimmed modestly after yesterday’s steepening.
  • After fully pricing 7 hikes in 2022 late yesterday for the first time, Dec’22 pricing dips to 171bps.
  • The path remains somewhat front-loaded with a cumulative 97bps priced over the next three meetings, starting with 25bp liftoff tomorrow being seen as very likely (27bps).
  • Data: PPI inflation for Feb (0830ET) will help finalise core PCE estimates for Mar 31 and Empire mfg for Mar (0830ET) offers the first look at US business sentiment following the beginning of the war in Ukraine after Germany’s ZEW investor survey has just tanked.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures cumulative hikes for specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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