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Kashkari Sticks To Rate Path, Helps Further Unwind CPI Rally

FED
  • Kashkari, the second '23 voter of the day, takes a similar view to that implied by Evans earlier that today's CPI inflation report hasn't changed his view.
  • Bloomberg headlines:

* WANTS FED RATE AT 3.9% BY YEAR END, 4.4% BY END-2023

* FED TO RAISE RATES, SIT THERE UNTIL INFLATION EASES

* TODAY'S CPI DATA DON'T CHANGE MY PATH

* FED IS FAR AWAY FROM DECLARING VICTORY ON INFLATION

  • It builds on analyst reactions that whilst a welcome sign of cooling inflationary pressures, it's only one release with another PCE, jobs and CPI print still to come before the Sep FOMC.
  • The comments help drive a further retracement in Tsy yields, with the 2YY now 'just' -5.5bps on the day vs -20bps with the peak snap reaction to the CPI miss, whilst the day's steepening in 2s10s is trimmed to +6bps at -43bps.
  • MNI: KASHKARI SAYS THERE COULD BE A RECESSION IN THE NEAR TERM, but KASHKARI: RECESSION `WILL NOT DETER ME' FROM GETTING TO 2% GOAL - bbg
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