May 15, 2024 14:46 GMT
KBC Results Due 16-May
FINANCIALS
KBC (KBCBB: Baa1 pos/A-/A) are due to report results on 16-May. A quiet quarter with asset prices broadly tracking peers for KBC. But then, quiet can be a real positive in retail banking. We imagine the revenue outlook in a falling rate environment to be the focus of the sell-side.
- There’s been little interesting news for KBC across the first quarter, but it’s come to credit markets three times since last results (a EUR1bn FRN, GBP500m Tier 2 and EUR800m 8Y green senior unsecured). The 8Y green priced at the top of our valuation range, implying little NIC – not unusual in the last few months.
- Results last time (8-Feb) were well received by the equity market on the day with revenues 1% better than expectations, a raised dividend and positive outlook indications for FY24 from mgmt.
- Spreads are 44bp tighter YTD (€IG banks: 44bp) and 8bp tighter in the last month (2bp weaker than peers), a very steady performance for this sensible retail-focused business. The equity is up 19% YTD (2pp behind peers).
- Earnings estimates have moved up 8% since results last time (revenues around1% better) since results. It is notable that there was a big earnings downgrade just before results last time (and the equity then bounced) whereas, this time, there’s been a big earnings upgrade in the last few days.
Results are due 0600 London time with conf call at 1200 at: https://channel.royalcast.com/kbc/?zone=#!/kbc/20240516_1
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