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Keeping To Circa 50/50 Odds Of First Cut In June

CANADA
  • GoCs mostly take their cue from Tsys today amidst a light domestic docket, twist steepening with 2Y yields 1.5bp lower and 10/30Y yields 3.5bps higher.
  • The long-end has opened up some mild outperformance but doesn’t wildly change Can-US yield differential trends: they are at the high end of the range from the past month but still depressed historically, with the 2Y at -44bps and 10Y at -74bps.
  • BoC-dated OIS has hovered either side of 50/50 odds for a first cut coming in June so far this week.
  • Recapping yesterday’s data, the BOS/CSCE surveys were mixed. Of note within the BOS, business sentiment improved and fewer companies expected a recession, but from a dovish angle there was decent moderation in price-setting behaviour, a sizeable shift from those seeing 2Y average price increases of >3% to 2-3% and a deterioration in capex intentions.
  • Further, insolvency data for February showed another sizeable 25% Y/Y increase for consumers and more notably reinforced the sharp increase for businesses seen in Jan, holding 122% Y/Y in Feb.
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