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Kiwi Tad Firmer, RBNZ MonPol Review On Tap This Week

NZD

NZD/USD trades at $0.5608, a tad higher on the day, after swinging into a weekly loss last Friday. Liquidity will be thinned out by holidays in China and parts of Australia today, while countdown starts to Wednesday's RBNZ monetary policy review.

  • Almost all analysts expect the MPC to raise the OCR by 50bp this week. The lone dissenter in a Bloomberg survey looks for a 25bp hike, while the OIS strip almost fully prices a double-barrel move.
  • The local calendar this week also features CoreLogic Hose Price Index (Wednesday) & ANZ Commodity Price Index (Thursday).
  • NZD/USD 1-week implied volatility has been creeping higher over the past week or so and remains elevated at 19.29%.
  • From a technical standpoint, bears need the pair to drop below Sep 28 low of $0.5565 before targeting Mar 19, 2020 low of $0.5470. Bulls look for a recovery above the $0.6000 mark to get some initial reprieve.
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