Free Trial

KRW Not Following Local Equities Higher, As Weaker CNH & JPY Trends Provide An Offset


1 month USD/KRW tone has met some resistance around the 1280 level, but we are still around 0.20% weaker in won terms versus NY closing levels on Monday (last near 1279). The 20-day EMA is very close to 1280, so this may be providing some resistance. A break above this level could see a move towards highs on July 21 (~1288.40) targeted.

  • Won weakness is very much in line with softer CNH and JPY levels against the USD. USD/CNH is tracking above 7.1700, while USD/JPY is above 142.60, although this is below earlier highs.
  • Some offset is likely being provided by the stronger local equity tone. The Kospi and Kosdaq are both +1% higher at this stage. The Kospi is now at fresh highs going back to May last year. A modest wedge has emerged in terms of local equity trends and the KRW, see the chart below. Note 1 month USD/KRW is inverted on the chart.
  • Earlier on the data front, we had slightly weaker than expected July export growth and a lower than forecast trade surplus. Some offset was provided by the rise in the manufacturing PMI though. This improvement was driven by export orders rising above the 50.0 point for the first time in 16 months.

Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month (Inverted) & Kospi Trends

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.