Kyodo, Asahi Projections Suggest LDP Will Lose Seats But Keep Majority

The latest projections based on large-sample opinion polls ahead of Sunday's general election suggest that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will retain a majority in the powerful lower house despite losing some seats.

• Kyodo News conducted a survey from Sunday through Tuesday, which showed that the LDP may lose some seats in the House of Representatives, but should retain a comfortable majority ("absolute stable majority" of 261 seats) together with its coalition partner Komeito. Kyodo noted that the LDP leads in around 200 single-member districts and faces "stiff competition" in 70 or so. In party-list vote, the ruling party was projected to the 66 seats it held before. As many as 40% of respondents said they were undecided.
• Earlier on Tuesday, the Asahi Shimbun published a projection based on their weekend survey. The LDP was forecast to maintain a single-party majority in the lower house, despite losing some seats. The survey showed that the LDP could win between 251 and 279 seats, which indicates a likely reduction from the current 276. The Asahi noted that 40% of respondents did not indicate their preference for single-seat candidates, while 30% did not pick their preferred party in the proportional representation component.