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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
The main opposition centre-left Labour Party has developed a sustained lead in recent opinion polling, with the latest poll from Kantar TNS giving the party a 6.5% lead over PM Erna Solberg's centre-right Conservatives - the widest lead for the opposition since March 2020.
- Kantar poll: Labour: 25% (+4), Conservative: 18% (-6), Centre Party: 18%. Progress Party: 10% (+1), Socialist Left: 9% (+1), Red Party: 7% (+2), Greens: 5% (+3), Liberals: 4%, Christian Democrats: 3% (-2). +/- vs. 26-30 April 2021, Fieldwork: 25-31 May 2021, Sample size: 1,179
Chart 1. Norwegian Opinion Polling (by party), % and 6 Poll Moving Average
Source: Norstat, Kantar TNS, Ipsos MMI, Sentio, Opinion Perduco, Respons Analyse, Norfakta, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll result.
- The outlook for Solberg winning a third term in office is poor. She faces her fifth general election as Conservative leader on 13 September. Not only is support for her party draining away, but the right-wing 'blue bloc' of parties also polls well below the left-wing 'red bloc' led by Labour (see chart below).
Chart 2. Norwegian Opinion Poll (by bloc), % and 6 Poll Moving Average
Source: Norstat, Kantar TNS, Ipsos MMI, Sentio, Opinion Perduco, Respons Analyse, Norfakta, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll result.
- While Labour leader Jonas Gahr Store has claimed that Norway's EEA membership would be 'untouchable' under a Labour-led gov't, both the agrarian Centre Party and the left-wing Socialist Left Party are seen as much more wary of close links with Brussels and have pushed for looser ties with the bloc. This could spark internal division in any new gov't, especially if the Centre and/or Socialist Left parties outperform and gain a sizeable number of seats in the Storting.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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