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Labour Market Data Called Into Question

TURKEY
  • Erdogan is due to be chairing a cabinet meeting from 4pm local time (1400BST/0900ET), meanwhile Foreign Minister Cavusoglu is headed to Israel this month in attempt to renew a diplomatic push to normalize relations between the two countries.
  • TurkStat’s labour market data has been called into question in Birgun, who write that while official numbers show the unemployment rate dropping, a number of labour market indicators including ISKUR job searches. Their study shows that the gap between ISKUR data and the official TurkStat numbers is also widening. ISKUR data sees unemployment as having risen by 325,000 over the past twelve months, while TurkStat numbers cite a 623,000 decrease over the same period.
  • Industrial output data released this morning came in well ahead of expectations, rising at 4.4% on the month vs. Exp. 2.7%, while the Y/Y metric rose 13.3% vs. Exp. 7.5%.
  • Focus remains on this week’s CBRT meeting, at which the bank are expected to keep policy unchanged at 14.00%.

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