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Further CNY Depreciation Weighs On EM FX


Aussie Awaits RBA Decision Next Week


(M2) Trend Condition Remains Bearish


(M2) At New Cycle Lows

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Labour Market Data In Focus


AUD/USD declined on a stronger greenback, the pair bottomed out at 0.7711 before bouncing slightly. Last down 2 pips at 0.7725.

  • UK PM Johnsons has kept the prospect of tariff free food trade with Australia on the table, fueling speculation of a deal with Australia that has faced opposition from UK farmers.
  • CBA are still positive on the outlook for AUD. "AUD/USD has been trading in a range of 0.7580‑0.7980 this year following a 36% rebound since its pandemic low. We consider Australia's relatively slow vaccine roll‑out has been partly holding back AUD, relative to high commodity prices. Vaccine hesitancy in Australia remains high largely because of concerns about side effects (see here for more). However, once concerns about slow vaccination drive fade, we expect AUD to lift back above 0.8000."
  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD faced selling pressure Wednesday. A bearish theme remains in place following last week's move lower to 0.7688 on May 13. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this zone would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7813, May 18 high ahead of the key resistance at 0.7891, May 10 high.
  • Labour market data is the highlight on Thursday due at 0230BST, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 5.6% with a net gain of 20k jobs. Also on the docket are consumer inflation expectations at 0200BST/1100AEST.

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