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Lagarde: Have To Look At Wage Dynamics From Multiple Angles

ECB
Q: What wage data are you looking at specifically?
  • A: Looking very closely at link between profit unit and cost per unit. Often said that wage indicators are backward looking e.g. Compensation per employee is from Oct.
  • Have internal wage metrics e.g. Wage tracker (Lane) - receive that on an almost constant basis.
  • Also Indeed, which gathers all the vacancies on the Internet and informs on the tightness of the labour market which determines the position of strength in wage negotiations for one party or the other. Seeing stabilisation and on Indeed seeing reduction in positions advertised.
  • Requires that we look from multiple angles - being forward looking is not easy for wages.
Q: There are more staff projections in June - so then makes sense for a cut dependent on the inflation outlook at that point? .
  • A: Are data dependent - make decisions one meeting at a time. Have today confirmed inflation outlook. Info received has shown medium-term inflation outlook is broadly in line with view from Dec. Look at underlying inflation - are seeing decline apart from domestic inflation.
  • Look at monpol transmission. Also look at inflation expectations. And look at latest inflation numbers - Dec was 0.5ppt north of Nov. Was largely caused by base effects and largely from Germany. Disinflation process is at work.
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