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Lags Broader Risk Rally

OIL

Brent crude last tracked just below $94/bbl, still broadly stuck between its simple 50-day MA ($92.60/bbl) and the 100-day MA ($97.35/bbl). We are slightly above NY closing levels, +0.30%, which is building on Thursday's +1.10% gain. WTI is around $86.70, tracing out a similar trajectory.

  • Still, oil has lagged the broader risk rally over the past 24 hours, post the US CPI miss, particularly relative to the equity space and some base metals like copper. Brent crude is currently tracking -4.7% down for the week.
  • There is concern around the demand backdrop, with oil not receiving much benefit this week from on-going speculation around a potential shift in China's CZS.
  • Earlier next week also has a number of important event risks for crude. On Monday the OPEC monthly report will be published, this is followed by the IEA monthly report on Tuesday.
  • The G20 meeting also kicks off in Bali on Tuesday, while we also get an update on monthly economic activity in China, with industrial production, among other indicators due.
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