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LATAM: Week Ahead: BanRep Rate Decision, Sheinbaum Inauguration, Chile Activity

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  • Focus next week will be on BanRep’s monetary policy meeting on Monday, which looks like being a close call between another 50bp cut or a larger 75bp move, with analysts leaning towards the smaller move. Markets will also watch Claudia Sheinbaum’s inauguration as Mexico’s next president on Tuesday, while on the data front Chile economic activity and Peru CPI inflation are due.
    • Focus will be on BanRep’s MPC meeting on Monday, when the central bank is expected to deliver another 50bp cut to 10.25%, with risk of a larger move. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its usual Focus survey, while primary budget balance and net debt data are also due in Brazil. In Chile, August activity data will be published, including retail sales and IP, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 10.3% in Colombia in August.
    • Attention turns to Mexico on Tuesday, where Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as president. On the data front, Chile economic activity (IMACEC) data for August will be released, while in Peru BCRP Governor Velarde has said that CPI inflation will likely remain around 2% y/y in September. Argentina September tax revenue figures and Brazil manufacturing PMI data are also due.
    • On Wednesday, Brazil August IP crosses, while in Mexico July gross fixed investment, August remittances and the September manufacturing PMI are due. Banxico will also publish its latest economist survey.
    • BanRep will publish the minutes to Monday’s MPC meeting on Thursday, while services and composite PMI figures are expected in Brazil, alongside central government budget data, which are expected to show a wider fiscal deficit in August.
    • The week closes with Brazil trade data and Mexico unemployment on Friday.
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  • Focus next week will be on BanRep’s monetary policy meeting on Monday, which looks like being a close call between another 50bp cut or a larger 75bp move, with analysts leaning towards the smaller move. Markets will also watch Claudia Sheinbaum’s inauguration as Mexico’s next president on Tuesday, while on the data front Chile economic activity and Peru CPI inflation are due.
    • Focus will be on BanRep’s MPC meeting on Monday, when the central bank is expected to deliver another 50bp cut to 10.25%, with risk of a larger move. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its usual Focus survey, while primary budget balance and net debt data are also due in Brazil. In Chile, August activity data will be published, including retail sales and IP, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 10.3% in Colombia in August.
    • Attention turns to Mexico on Tuesday, where Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as president. On the data front, Chile economic activity (IMACEC) data for August will be released, while in Peru BCRP Governor Velarde has said that CPI inflation will likely remain around 2% y/y in September. Argentina September tax revenue figures and Brazil manufacturing PMI data are also due.
    • On Wednesday, Brazil August IP crosses, while in Mexico July gross fixed investment, August remittances and the September manufacturing PMI are due. Banxico will also publish its latest economist survey.
    • BanRep will publish the minutes to Monday’s MPC meeting on Thursday, while services and composite PMI figures are expected in Brazil, alongside central government budget data, which are expected to show a wider fiscal deficit in August.
    • The week closes with Brazil trade data and Mexico unemployment on Friday.