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Late 2024 Fed Implied Rates Pushing Back Towards Post-CPI Highs

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for meetings later into 2024 have been slowly creeping back towards post-CPI highs after only a mild paring of the initial move.
  • Cumulative cuts: 2.5bp Mar, 10.5bp May, 26bp Jun, 42bp Jul, 75bp Nov and 92bp in Dec.
  • Nov and Dec implied rates have climbed 21bps since CPI and 49/51bps since payrolls on Feb 2, with the rate path by far the closest to the 3 cuts pencilled in for 2024 at the Dec FOMC since then.
  • There has been no pop-up Fedspeak so far today. Next up tomorrow is Goolsbee (’25 voter) in Q&A and VC for Supervision Barr (perm voter) who could be of note as he is also set to talk on mon pol rather than just banking supervision.

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