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Late Markets Roundup: July is Live

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are holding firmer for the most part, just off pre-FOMC levels with the short end underperforming after the Fed kept rates steady, as expected. But hawkish forward guidance with 12 of 18 Fed officials expecting another 50bp later this year saw futures gap lower. Chairman Powell: July is Live.
  • The unexpected guidance weighed heavily on the short end, curves flattening sharply (2s10s fell to -95.800, lowest since March 10s when the spread inverted to the lowest level since the early 80s.
  • The decision comes against the backdrop of an inflation picture that has been improving but is still a far cry from the central bank's official 2% target. CPI inflation slipped to a two-year low of 4.0% in May but core inflation remained quite elevated at 5.3%.
  • Treasury futures extended highs this morning after lower than expected PPI (-0.3% vs. -0.1% est; YoY flat vs +1.5% est).
  • STIR: July hike: +16bp having sat at +18.5bp after the announcement, back at the +16bp cumulative pre-decision. Terminal: 5.29% in Sep (and 5.28% in Nov), vs 5.32% held after announcement vs 5.25% pre-decision
  • Cuts from terminal to year-end: near unchanged on presser, currently at 8bps vs 15bps pre-decision for a rate that’s 13bps higher than the current effective of 5.08%.
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