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Late NY Rally Extends With Flash PMIs, BoC and 5Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 0.5-2.5bp richer, underperforming EGBs after yesterday’s outperformance. Early London flow was dominated by a TY block buyer (DV01 ~$700K), while flash European PMI data and digestion of the latest PBoC RRR cut provided a fundamental tilt to the bid.
  • TYH4 is off earlier highs of 111-17+ (latest 111-14+, + 07+) on decent volumes of 330k. The increase is a step closer to resistance at 111-23+ (20-day EMA) although the bear threat remains present with support at 110-26 (Jan 19 low).
  • Flash January PMIs land along with the BoC decision at 0945ET, before attention turns to supply including the 5Y auction after yesterday’s 2Y saw a lower bid-to-cover but a strong increase in indirect take.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data (0700ET), S&P Global US PMIs Jan prelim (0945ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN (1130ET), $61B 5Y Note auction (91282CJW2, 1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill auctions (1130ET)
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