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Latest Narrowing In Can-US Yield Differential Reverses On Retail/Mfg Sales

CANADA
  • The soft retail sales and advance manufacturing data have seen the day's earlier upward momentum in Can-US yield differentials reverse.
  • GoC yields are 3bps (2Y) and 1.5bps (10Y) lower since the data compared to flat to modest increases in Tsy yields, with the 3bp swing in the 2Y differential leaving it now -1bp on the day at -69bp.
  • This differential is still 9bp higher than the close after soft CAD CPI and hawkish Fedspeak was seen as a continued divergence between the US and Canada.
  • BoC-dated OIS slips from a little less than 15bps to closer to 16bp of cumulative cuts for June, whilst CORRA futures shift from 62bp to 66bp of cuts over 2024 contracts.

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