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Latest Poll Shows Macron's Legislative Majority Under Threat

FRANCE

Latest poll from Ipsos ahead of the 12/19 June legislative elections shows President Emmanuel Macron's centrist 'Ensemble' alliance on course to remain the largest grouping in the National Assembly, but its prospects of retaining a majority are more uncertain.

  • Seat projection: Ensemble: 290-330 seats, NUPES: 165-195, LR/UDI: 35-65, RN: 20-45, Others: 5-10. Ipsos/CEVIPOF, 19/05/22
  • With 289 seats required for a majority, the lowest end of the Ensemble seat projection range sits just one seat above this threshold.
  • The primary threat to Macron's group retaining its majority is the leftist NUPES alliance containing a range of left and centre-left parties including Jean-Luc Melenchon's La France Insoumise and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), historically a dominant force in French politics.
  • In the event Macron's group loses its majority, it will be reliant on opposition support to enact the president's reform agenda, a difficutl prospect. A major underperformance from Macron's bloc/a shock outperformance from NUPES would lead to a period of 'cohabitation', with Macron forced to appoint a PM from the leftist bloc, making any policy enactment a slow and ill-tempered process.
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Latest poll from Ipsos ahead of the 12/19 June legislative elections shows President Emmanuel Macron's centrist 'Ensemble' alliance on course to remain the largest grouping in the National Assembly, but its prospects of retaining a majority are more uncertain.

  • Seat projection: Ensemble: 290-330 seats, NUPES: 165-195, LR/UDI: 35-65, RN: 20-45, Others: 5-10. Ipsos/CEVIPOF, 19/05/22
  • With 289 seats required for a majority, the lowest end of the Ensemble seat projection range sits just one seat above this threshold.
  • The primary threat to Macron's group retaining its majority is the leftist NUPES alliance containing a range of left and centre-left parties including Jean-Luc Melenchon's La France Insoumise and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), historically a dominant force in French politics.
  • In the event Macron's group loses its majority, it will be reliant on opposition support to enact the president's reform agenda, a difficutl prospect. A major underperformance from Macron's bloc/a shock outperformance from NUPES would lead to a period of 'cohabitation', with Macron forced to appoint a PM from the leftist bloc, making any policy enactment a slow and ill-tempered process.