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Latest Sentiment Data Underscores Case for Soft Landing

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While equities continue to drift higher after better than expected UofM sentiment, rates have gradually receded, trading near late session lows after the bell.

  • UoM data climbed from 59.7 prior to 64.6 (60.7 est) underscoring the case for a soft landing for the economy as sentiment hit its highest lvl since Apr'22, while 1Y inflation exp recedes to lowest lvl since Apr 2021 at 4.0% vs. 4.3% exp (4.4% prior).
  • At the margin it suggests growing headwinds to input prices but only after a string of solidly negative readings, averaging -0.4% M/M through Jun-Nov during which period core goods inflation has fallen notably.
  • Earlier data showed surprising strength for import prices, rising 0.4% M/M (cons -0.9%) and with a broadly similar sized upside surprise for ex-petroleum prices at 0.8% M/M (cons -0.3%).
  • Limited react to Tsy Sec Yellen comments on debt ceiling: next Thu, Jan 19, US outstanding debt "is projected to reach the statutory limit. Once the limit is reached, Treasury will need to start taking certain extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting," she said.
  • Decent first half trade died down in the second half w/ US markets closed for Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day. Limited docket for Tuesday while equity earnings resume: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expected to announce before the NY open. Data picks up in earnest on Wednesday January 18 with Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories, Net TIC flow.
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While equities continue to drift higher after better than expected UofM sentiment, rates have gradually receded, trading near late session lows after the bell.

  • UoM data climbed from 59.7 prior to 64.6 (60.7 est) underscoring the case for a soft landing for the economy as sentiment hit its highest lvl since Apr'22, while 1Y inflation exp recedes to lowest lvl since Apr 2021 at 4.0% vs. 4.3% exp (4.4% prior).
  • At the margin it suggests growing headwinds to input prices but only after a string of solidly negative readings, averaging -0.4% M/M through Jun-Nov during which period core goods inflation has fallen notably.
  • Earlier data showed surprising strength for import prices, rising 0.4% M/M (cons -0.9%) and with a broadly similar sized upside surprise for ex-petroleum prices at 0.8% M/M (cons -0.3%).
  • Limited react to Tsy Sec Yellen comments on debt ceiling: next Thu, Jan 19, US outstanding debt "is projected to reach the statutory limit. Once the limit is reached, Treasury will need to start taking certain extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting," she said.
  • Decent first half trade died down in the second half w/ US markets closed for Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day. Limited docket for Tuesday while equity earnings resume: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expected to announce before the NY open. Data picks up in earnest on Wednesday January 18 with Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories, Net TIC flow.