Latest YouGov MRP Puts Labour On 400+ Seats, Conservatives Below 1997 Low

Pollster YouGov has released its latest MRPopinion poll in what will make difficult reading for the gov't of PM Rishi Sunak. An MRP poll is viewed as more in-depth than a normal opinion poll as it seeks to make projections for each fo the 650 seats in the House of Commons. Should the latest MRP be reflected in the next general election it would represent an even worse result for the governing centre-right Conservatives than that of 1997, seen as an historic nadir for the party.

• YouGov (seat projection): Labour: 403 (+201), Conservatives: 155 (-210), Liberal Democrat: 49 (+38), Scottish National Party: 19 (-29), Plaid Cymru: 4 (=), Greens: 1 (=), Reform UK: 0 (=). Chgs w/ 2019 election. Fieldwork: 7-27 March, 18,761 respondents.
• The results are worse for the Conservatives than the January MRP, which had the party on 169 seats compared to Labour's 385.
• Recent weeks have seen intense Westminster speculation about the prospect of a leadership challenge to Sunak in a last-ditch effort to turn around the poor polling numbers. The likelihood of such a challenge remains low (the 2 May local elections could be a trigger), but this MRP will further embolden Sunak's critics.
• Any change in Conservative leader (and therefore PM) would garner significant political headlines, but would be unlikely to notably change fiscal policy in the time avaliable ahead of the election.