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Layoff Announcements Fall Y/Y As Tech Base Effects Continue To Flatter

US DATA
  • Challenger job cut announcements of 82.3k marked a -20% Y/Y decline in January, the second consecutive month at -20% Y/Y and having fallen an average -17% Y/Y through Q4.
  • The Y/Y decline is again helped by favorable base effects stemming from the tech sector which saw layoffs surge in late 2022/early 2023. January’s 15.8k compared to 41.8k in Jan’23 (-62% Y/Y).
  • Layoffs excluding tech companies meanwhile increased 9% Y/Y after the 35% Y/Y averaged in Q4, i.e. still increasing but at a far more modest pace than 1H23 when they surged 211% Y/Y in Q1 and 130% Y/Y in Q2.
  • Individual sector data can be noisy month-to-month, but financial sectors provided the largest single contribution to January’s layoffs (23.2k, 119% Y/Y).
  • The data could be seen as pointing to some mild upside risk to weekly jobless claims data as these announcements feed through, but it's starting from a very low base with initial claims averaging just 202k over the past four weeks.

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