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Leading Index Eyes Recession Starting Soon (1/2)

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The October reading of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.8% (below the -0.4% expected), marking a 3.2% decline in the 6-month span since April and an 8th straight drop.

  • While financial market indicators are pointing to an economic slowdown, the persistent weakness in the Conf Board LEI is down to non-financial factors - see chart below.
  • The biggest contributor to the decline (both in Oct and since Apr) has been in consumer expectations, with ISM New Orders and building permits (which we've flagged multiple times as an important and increasingly concerning leading indicator) also contributing heavily.

Source: Conference Board

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The October reading of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.8% (below the -0.4% expected), marking a 3.2% decline in the 6-month span since April and an 8th straight drop.

  • While financial market indicators are pointing to an economic slowdown, the persistent weakness in the Conf Board LEI is down to non-financial factors - see chart below.
  • The biggest contributor to the decline (both in Oct and since Apr) has been in consumer expectations, with ISM New Orders and building permits (which we've flagged multiple times as an important and increasingly concerning leading indicator) also contributing heavily.

Source: Conference Board