CANADA: Liberals Continue Climbing In Polls As Carney Takes Over

The election of former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney as leader of the governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) on 9 March comes with the party recording some of its strongest opinion polling in years as the escalating trade war and political hostilities with the US sparks a 'rally round the flag' effect that has seen backing for the LPC soar in recent weeks. In the latest EKOS opinion poll the LPC leads the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) with 40.7% support to 35.5%. This 5.2% lead is the largest in an EKOS poll since September 2021. 

• Most polling continues to show Pierre Poilievre's CPC ahead, but its lead has been slashed, and the widespread expectations from just over a month ago of the next election delivering a sizeable Conservative majority have now changed to either a narrow Conservative majority, or a hung parliament where no party holds a majority of seats.
• The House of Commons returns from prorogation on 25 March, with Poilievre confirming that he intends to move a motion of no confidence against the gov't as soon as possible. The CPC could be pre-empted though, with the prospect that Carney calls an early election shortly after formally taking over as PM (a date is not set yet, he will hold talks with incumbent Justin Trudeau to discuss the handover) to take advantage of any 'honeymoon' polling surge.
• For the latest on what the Carney gov'ts stance on US relations might look like, see our Policy team's latest 'MNI: Carney To Take On Trump, Be Fiscally Cautious - Ministers',10 March.

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average