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Light Positioning, Reduced Dovish Drivers Support TRY vs Peers as Volatility Ticks Up W/W

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades flat to higher around the open, tracking BBDXY price action to some degree.
  • Surprisingly, TRY has been slightly more resilient to risk-off conditions this week when compared to high-beta peers RUB & ZAR – mostly due to light positioning and lower exposure to commodity volatility.
  • The cross remains pegged in its broad consolidation range ahead of next week's CBRT, which is expected to be broadly uneventful, given limited space to enact dovish policy changes amid rising CPI.
  • Upside in the cross has also been limited by the scaling back of dovish inputs into the CBRT reaction function, given a shift in outlook from institutions towards higher year-end inflation targets and reduced 4Q21 rate cut estimates.
  • Further Turnover in Turkish state institutions is a reminder of Erdogan's influence on Turkey's economic trajectory, with markets eyeing the plan to boost funding to state banks.
  • Current acc data is expected to show a widening balance in May, adding further downside pressure on TRY.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.6399, Sup2: 8.5808, Res1:8.7488, Res2: 8.8008
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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