Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
The sell-side analyst “median of medians” for the June update of the Fed funds Dot Plot shows 5.4% for 2023 (up 25bp from Mar), 4.4% for 2024 (up 12.5bp from Mar), and 3.1% for 2025 (unch from Mar), with nobody expecting a change in the longer-run rate at 2.5%. See table below.
- MNI's expectation is for medians in line with those, though we see 2025 a little higher, at 3.4%.
- The sell-side range of 2023 median dot expectations is 5.1% to 5.6%. Barclays is at the high end of all expectations for the Dot Plot (5.6% 2023, 4.9% 2024, 3.6% 2023).
- Most expectations are for the "mean" of the dots to be skewed to above the median, with several above the 5.375% mark for 2023.
- We think an outcome in which 7 or more participants see rates above 5.375% (ie 50bp or more in hikes this year, assuming a hold this week) would be interpreted hawkishly.
- Again, Barclays has the outlying hawkish opinion here, with 11 of the 18 participants at 5.625% or above. (TD for instance sees just 4; Nomura 5; Goldman 6)
- Our full sell-side analyst summaries document is here.
Source: MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok