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Liquidity Challenged Ahead Sep NFP

US TSYS

Tsy futures weaker but off midmorning lows after the close where 10YY tapped 3.8418% high, 30YY 3.8140% high, before paring move into midday, initial impetus tied to sympathy move with sell-off in EGBs, particularly longer Gilts apparently as mkt expresses dissatisfaction with poorly researched/planned buy scheme introduced last week.

  • Off-sides positioning hampered by low liquidity ahead Friday's September NFP (+250k est vs. +315k prior; wide dealer range from +200k low to JPM high at +389k)
  • Sell-stops triggered on the way down while couple Dec'22 10Y future block sales (over 11k total) contributed to higher yields as did hawkish tones from Fed speakers (MN Fed Kashkari: high bar to change Fed's current path of higher rates to combat inflation).
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 8.7bps at 4.235%, 5-Yr is up 8bps at 4.0462%, 10-Yr is up 6.3bps at 3.8155%, and 30-Yr is up 3.6bps at 3.7896%.

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