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Little Net Movement In ECB Pricing Despite Long End Swings, Late/End Cycle Dominates

STIR

ECB-dated OIS is essentially unchanged on the day.

  • Swings in the longer end haven’t had meaningful net feedthrough, with the late/end of cycle narrative at the ECB well known.
  • ECB speak from the traditionally hawkish Muller once again pointed to his expectation that the Bank will not have to hike rates again in the current cycle (based on his current outlook), typifying the general Governing Council view.
  • Comments from fellow Governing Council member Simkus pointed to the need for discussion re: PEPP holdings sooner rather than later (reiterating comments provided to MNI previously re: the change in environment on that front), along with stressing that there is no need to rush when it comes to discussing rate cuts.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Oct-233.925+2.1
Dec-233.962+5.8
Jan-243.951+4.7
Mar-243.906+0.2
Apr-243.841-6.3
Jun-243.746-15.8
Jul-243.641-26.3
Sep-243.521-38.3
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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