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Little Relief For CNH Despite Fresh Policy Support

ASIA FX

The USD has continued to rally against Asian FX, albeit to varying degrees. CNH has weakened to fresh cyclical lows, likewise for KRW, TWD, and SGD, while INR has made another fresh record low. Tomorrow China industrial profits for August are due, along with South Korean consumer confidence. Neither release is expected to shift sentiment.

  • USD/CNH hit a fresh high of just under 7.1740, despite another stronger CNY fix and a hike in the forward FX reserve level for banks (see this link for more details). We are back now at 7.1690, but dips remain supported. Previous highs just under 7.2000 are being eyed.
  • Spot USD/KRW is at 1433, 1.65% above last Friday's close. Onshore equities have fallen sharply, down 3%. BoK Governor Rhee spoke to the local parliament but hasn't shifted sentiment a great deal.
  • USD/TWD is up above 31.87, a fresh cyclical high. Local stocks are down 2.50%, led by the tech sensitive sector.
  • USD/SGD is above 1.4350, fresh highs back to early 2020. The currency is outperforming broader USD gains. The SGD NEER is higher in the session. IP growth for August was better than expected at +2.0 m/m (1.5% expected).
  • USD/IDR has turned bid, absorbing risk-off flows, with the pair +87.50 figs to 15125 last. Weaker commodity prices are weighing, while there is little of real note on the local data docket this week.
  • USD/INR has pushed through 81.55, to a fresh record high. Onshore equities are struggling, down over 1.6% so far in trade. This Friday the RBI decision is due, where the central bank is expected to raise rates by 50bps (to 5.90%).
  • Spot USD/MYR has appreciated in line with a surge in the broader dollar. We were last just shy of 4.6000. Topside technical focus falls on MYR4.6100, which capped gains twice in January 1998.

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