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USD/KRW - Concerted Break Above 1300

KRW

Spot USD/KRW gapped higher at the open to +1310, we have settled somewhat at 1309, but this is fresh cyclical highs back to 2009 for the pair. The 1 month NDF got as high as 1315 overnight.

  • The Kospi is tracking lower in early trade today, down over1%, partly reversing some of yesterday's 1.8% gain. This Kosdaq is holding better, as the SOX and MSCI IT indices rose overnight, albeit from depressed levels.
  • Offshore investors added $311mn to local shares yesterday, but this may reverse somewhat today.
  • The won remains a key barometer for global recession risks within the region. Hence this break above 1300 may hold this time, as recent moves above this level have not been sustained. However, we will remain mindful of official rhetoric around FX volatility/one sided moves etc.
  • Note the data calendar is quiet today. The case for a 50bps hike at next week's meeting continues to build, after yesterday's 6% YoY inflation print, although it is not a uniform view among sell-side analysts.

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