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Local Analysts Remain Split Over May and June For First Rate Cut (2/2)

SWEDEN
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  • Tomorrow sees the release of Prospera's inflation expectations survey at 0700/0800GMT, alongside appearances from Executive Board members Flodén (0845GMT/0945CET), Breman (1100GMT/1200CET) and Thedéen (1655GMT/1755CET). While First Dep. Gov Breman speaks specifically on the Riksbank's view of the Swedish housing and property market, all speeches will provide an opportunity for the Executive Board to react to today's inflation data.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects that downside risks to the SEK (i.e. if the Riksbank begins cutting prior to the Fed/ECB) will be a key factor the decision to begin easing, even if not explicitly referenced by some members of the Executive Board (Deputy Governor Jansson is an outlier in this respect).
  • There remains some uncertainty on when the Riksbank's easing cycle will begin. Local analysts appear split between May and June for the first rate cut.
  • Latest estimates from SEB indicate that markets price the first full 25bp rate cut at the June meeting (35bps priced in total), with 17bps priced through May.
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  • Tomorrow sees the release of Prospera's inflation expectations survey at 0700/0800GMT, alongside appearances from Executive Board members Flodén (0845GMT/0945CET), Breman (1100GMT/1200CET) and Thedéen (1655GMT/1755CET). While First Dep. Gov Breman speaks specifically on the Riksbank's view of the Swedish housing and property market, all speeches will provide an opportunity for the Executive Board to react to today's inflation data.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects that downside risks to the SEK (i.e. if the Riksbank begins cutting prior to the Fed/ECB) will be a key factor the decision to begin easing, even if not explicitly referenced by some members of the Executive Board (Deputy Governor Jansson is an outlier in this respect).
  • There remains some uncertainty on when the Riksbank's easing cycle will begin. Local analysts appear split between May and June for the first rate cut.
  • Latest estimates from SEB indicate that markets price the first full 25bp rate cut at the June meeting (35bps priced in total), with 17bps priced through May.