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Local Assets Surge Following Presidential Election Result

COLOMBIA
  • The Colombian peso leaped 4.2%, its biggest daily move in more than 10 years, in initial reaction to outsider Rodolfo Hernandez unexpectedly passing the first round of voting in the presidential race.
  • USDCOP sank to print fresh lows of 3742, narrowing the gap with well defined medium-term support around 3710, which represents the June 2021 lows.
  • Furthermore, the IBR swaps curve bull steepened with 10-year swap rates falling roughly 30 basis points, increasing the curves inverted state.
  • According to a poll by Centro Nacional de Consultoria published by El Tiempo newspaper, Rodolfo Hernandez has 41% support vs 39% for Gustavo Petro.
  • This highlights what a close contest the runoff is likely to be. The gap is within the poll’s margin of error of 2.8%. Poll of 1,200 people was conducted between May 30-31.
    • For reference, a previous poll taken between 13–19 May 2022 showed both candidates tied with 40.5% and so indicates a marginal change in favour of Hernandez.
  • Separately, BTG Pactual Andean Chief Economist Munir Jalil speaks on conference call today regarding first round election results in Colombia.
  • Data includes: May Davivienda Colombia PMI Mfg, prior 54.4
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