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Looking ahead to the BOE

BONDS
  • After an early bid seen particularly in EGBs (which led USTs and gilts higher), a "significant" shift higher in the ECB's consumer inflation expectations survey saw the moves higher largely reversed and we now see Bund and UST futures both close to flat on the day, although gilt futures remain higher on the day.
  • Looking ahead we will receive US PPI and there are some Fed/ECB speakers due but the main event will be the BOE meeting.
  • Markets price in more than 24bp for today's meeting with a cumulative peak of 65bp seen by the September meeting. In terms of expectations for today a 25bp hike with unchanged guidance, a 7-2 vote split (2 dovish dissenters), unchanged guidance and a small upward revision to the 2/3-year CPI forecasts are generally expected. We set out expectations on the risks and potential gilt moves earlier.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1+ today at 115-27+ with 10y UST yields down -0.3bp at 3.430% and 2y yields up 1.1bp at 3.923%.
  • Bund futures are unch today at 135.96 with 10y Bund yields up 0.1bp at 2.287% and Schatz yields up 0.9bp at 2.576%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.09 today at 100.81 with 10y yields down -1.2bp at 3.784% and 2y yields down -1.9bp at 3.794%.
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