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Low Mkt Conviction Ahead Nov FOMC

US TSYS
Tsys currently mixed after a strong start and ongoing debate over step-down to a 50bp hike in December as data cools. Little new in WSJ's Fed watcher Timiraos article overnight.
  • Support evaporates after midmorning JOLTS data (job openings rise unexpectedly to 10.717M vs. 9.75M est (above prior 10.053M) showed labor market remains tight - dampening speculation over step-down to 50bp hike at Dec FOMC.
  • Lack of strong convictions over forward policy evident in market swings ahead Wednesday's FOMC at 1400ET and Chair Powell's presser at 1430ET. Friday sees latest employment data for October.
  • Case in point: Bonds had started to bounce off midday lows following misinterpreted BBG headline: BIDEN HAS ENDORSED FED'S POLICY PIVOT: BERNSTEIN (Jared Berstein, sits on the White House Council of Economic Advisers).
  • Since the Fed is in blackout ahead Wed's FOMC, there has been no mention of a policy pivot which spurred confusion until Bbg ran correction: BIDEN ENDORSED FED PIVOT TO TIGHTEN THIS YR, Bbg. Tsys receded again despite the continued use of "PIVOT" in the statement.
  • At the moment: 2-Yr yield is up 6.2bps at 4.5447%, 5-Yr is up 3.9bps at 4.267%, 10-Yr is up 1.3bps at 4.0606%, and 30-Yr is down 4bps at 4.1235%.
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