Free Trial

Lula Holds Wide Polling Lead As PT Shooting Raises Political Temperature

BRAZIL

Latest opinion polling ahead of the 2 October presidential election shows left-wing opposition candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva maintaining a sizable lead over right-wing incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. While both frontrunners lost some ground in first-round polling, they remain the overwhelming favourites to make the potential second round run-off on 30 October.

  • FSB poll (first round): Lula (PT): 45% (-2), Bolsonaro (PL): 35% (-1), Gomes (PDT): 10% (+1), Tebet (MDB): 4%. (+/- vs. 24-26 June 2022) .Fieldwork: 8-10 July 2022. Sample size: 2,000
  • FSB poll: Second round: Lula (PT): 59% (+1), Bolsonaro (PL): 41% (-1). (+/- vs. 24-26 June 2022) Fieldwork: 8-10 July 2022. Sample size: 2,000
  • Tensions surrounding the election and broader political environment are likely to escalate further as the vote approaches. Over the weekend, an official from the leftist Workers' Party, which has Lula as its candidate, was shot dead at a birthday party by an individual who had allegedly expressed vocal support for President Bolsonaro.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.