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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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[The following is taken from the MNI Fed Preview, see here]
- GDP growth still looks set for a resilient Q1 after surging in 2H23, although trackers have lost some of their shine from earlier in the quarter. Consumption and specifically retail sales have played a sizeable role here.
- The January retail sales saw a large miss along with downward revisions and was then compounded by a similar story in February.
- Business surveys meanwhile were mixed, with both ISM manufacturing and service indices beating expectations in January before missing in February. Whilst a relatively small miss for services, it was accompanied by heavy declines in prices paid and employment vs a strong increase for new orders.
- The upshot is that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, which in recent quarters has outperformed analyst estimates, stands at 2.3% annualized for Q1 [since lowered to 2.1]. If accurate it would follow two quarters averaging 4.0% annualized in 2H23 [and be close to the] 2.15% averaged in 1H23 as growth continues to come in more resilient than prior forecasts.
- The booming growth into the tail end of 2023 meant that 4Q23 GDP growth of 3.1% Y/Y (prior to any further revisions) overshot the FOMC’s median forecast of 2.6% made as recently as the December SEP. If the 2.3% Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is accurate for Q1 it would see GDP starting the year at 3.1% Y/Y.
- The December forecast then saw GDP growth of 1.4% Y/Y in 4Q24, which like core PCE could see some upside risk for the upcoming March forecast round.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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