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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- The January labour force survey saw jobs growth easily stronger than expected at a seasonally adjusted 37k (cons 15k).
- When coupled with surprisingly little feed-through from booming population growth to the labour force it meant the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped a tenth to 5.7% vs cons 5.9%.
- This recent disconnect between population and labour force growth has been puzzling, with the working-age population increasing a seasonally adjusted 200k over Dec-Jan compared to just 28k for the labour force. In a potentially dovish factor looking ahead, it could see greater labour force increases in the near-term.
- There were some further dovish caveats to what looked like a strong report. Firstly, part-time job creation dominated the latest increases, increasing +49k in Jan vs -12k in Dec; or +54k over the past three months vs +14k for full-time. Secondly, January seasonality, with outright job losses seen in non-seasonally adjusted terms, can positively distort the seasonally adjusted data when the labour market is tight.
- Whilst not as historically extreme as the -125k in Jan'23, there were 'only' -197k of job losses in actual employment in Jan'24 vs the -255k averaged in January's in 2015-19 and -500k in 2021-22. The February report should provide a better idea of latest seasonally adjusted trends.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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